Swimmer Progression: The Journey is not Linear

The Phenom, the Climber and the Age Group Phenom

by Ryan Woodruff, adapted by Alec Scott (Coach Alec adaptation in bold)

Ours is a competitive sport and one that easily lends itself to comparison. Whereas in basketball or soccer for example we could have endless debates about who is a better player, in swimming we have the most black and white tool for comparison that exists: THE CLOCK. This is awesome because it allows us to know exactly where we stand versus the competition at any meet or season of a swimmer’s career. This knowledge can be motivating but it ignores one critical truth: that swimmers mature, grow, and improve at vastly different rates. Every swimmer follows his or her own path.

Here is an example: Caeleb Dressel and Ryan Held both made the US Olympic team in 2016 — Dressel in the individual 100 free and both men as part of the 400 freestyle relay.  But they took different paths to get there. I’ve (Coach Alec) included a third swimmer in this comparison, Winn Aung, who was the best swimmer of the three by a comfortable margin as a 12 and under. 

Dressel was an age group phenom at St. John’s Country Day School, later the Bolles School, and eventually the University of Florida.  Held grew up swimming for the Springfield (Illinois) YMCA team and swam collegiately at NC State, steadily climbing the ranks. Winn Aung grew up swimming in the Sacramento area for Redding Swim Team and was smashing National age group records left and right, he went on to swim collegiately at the Division II Level for the University of Tampa. 

Here are their career progressions, by the numbers:

At age 11, Caeleb Dressel was already a National Age Group record holder.  Held wouldn’t even record an official time in the long course 100 free until age 15.  Held at 15 was only 1.10 seconds faster than 11 year-old Dressel. Winn Aung was the 9-10 and 11-12 National Age Group Record holder, beating marks established by Dressel and others. 

A closer look at their short course times is even more revealing.

At age 9, Caeleb Dressel was already putting up very good times in Florida, and by age 11 he was a certified phenom.  At age 11, Held had posted a time that would be 9 seconds slower than the current age group champs qualifying time in Illinois. At age 9 Winn Aung was swimming nearly 2 seconds faster than Caeleb Dressel was at the same age, at age 11 and 13 he was even further ahead. 

Both of these athletes have impressive progressions of steady improvement over time.  I remember watching Caeleb Dressel at age 10 in Florida – it was clear he was headed for big things. If 11 year-old Ryan Held was at a meet I attended, I would have never even noticed him. Held just kept climbing. You might have seen Winn Aung at a meet as an 11 year old and thought for sure he was on his way to Olympic glory - he went on to have success in the sport but not the kind of success one might have anticipated. 

 My point is that no two swimmers follow the same path.  Every swimmer is judged by the clock, but some swimmers will show promise early, and others won’t.  It is folly to suggest that elite senior performance can be accurately predicted. 

I also do not mean for this article to be harsh on Winn Aung. I will say it in no uncertain terms, Winn Aung had a SUCCESSFUL swimming career. Most athletes will not swim collegiately and his coaches and parents deserve a lot of credit for keeping him in the sport once improvement became hard to come by. 

For parents, it is important to support the swimmer in his or her quest to continually improve without making comparisons.  What other swimmers are or are not achieving is simply not relevant.  Johnny being faster than Jimmy at age 10 is meaningless as evidence of who will be faster at 16. Parents can help by promoting commitment, hard work, and being a good teammate – the results will come, however fast they may be.